The long-term future of coal as a major energy source is often portrayed as being at risk; however, the picture is more complex than that, according to a new report from the IEA Clean Coal Centre that looks at the effects of regulatory trends on coal-fired power plants and global coal demand :

“More stringent legislation for coal combustion means that in some parts of the world, notably the EU, coal-fired power providers must either construct state-of-the-art, advanced power plants, invest in retrofitting pollution control technologies for existing facilities or shut down plants altogether”, said the IEA Clean Coal Centre in a press statement on the release of the report.

Despite such measures and the latest commitment to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions at COP21 in Paris late 2015, thermal coal demand will continue to grow to 2040 led by China and India and, to a lesser extend, southeast Asian countries, the report concludes :

“By 2040, forecasts indicate that the share of coal in global primary energy will decline to 24% (from 30% in 2014). But projections show that global coal demand will increase 15% by 2040, as total energy demand grows”, said the IEA Clean Coal Centre.

Yet this growth will vary greatly between regions. In OECD countries, coal demand is forecast to decline, particularly in the US where electricity generation from coal-fired power plant is expected to fall by about a third over the next decade, “due to increased regulation and competition from other fuels”, said the IEA Clean Coal Centre :

“Conversely, coal demand in developing countries is forecast to increase by about one third by 2040 with significant growth in south east Asia, India, Africa and Brazil”, continued the IEA Clean Coal Centre, adding that “coal demand in China is expected to peak in 2030”.